我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析
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2019年度国家社会科学基金重点项目“生育支持政策试点效果跟踪评估与生育友好型社会构建研究”(19ARK004);2021年度陕西省社会科学基金项目“陕西省托幼公共服务体系及政策创新研究”(2021F002)


Analysis of Urban-Rural Differences in Population Ageing and the Influencing Factors in China
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    摘要:

    人口的乡—城转移导致了老龄化城乡倒置现象,人口的单向跨区域流动也造成了我国大范围的地区年龄结构失衡,对我国的经济社会可持续发展造成威胁。基于2010—2019年大陆31个省市的面板数据,以人口老龄化系数为被解释变量,分别构建固定效应和随机效应模型,从人口、经济、社会三个方面研究我国城镇、农村人口老龄化和城乡倒置现象的影响因素以及三类因素在东、中、西部地区的不同表现。结果显示,人口因素是老龄化城乡差异的直接原因,经济因素是根本原因,教育、医疗、社会保障等社会因素在城乡、区域之间影响不一。为此,政府应当增强生育支持力度以提高生育率,推动城乡一体化发展,推动农村地区的养老服务建设,并鼓励区域的联动合作,以缓解老龄化集聚地区的人口压力。

    Abstract:

    Under the urbanrural dual structure, the disparity in development between urban and rural regions has caused a significant overflow of rural residents, an aging rural population, and the phenomenon known as urbanrural inversion of population aging. The oneway crossregional movement of people has contributed to both the ruralurban population transfer and a significant regional age structure imbalance in China, which is a danger to the country’s longterm economic and social growth. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2019, we build fixedeffect and randomeffect models with the population aging coefficients as the explanatory variables to investigate the factors that influence population aging and the phenomenon of ruralurban inversion in urban and rural areas of China, as well as the performance of the three types of factors in the eastern, central, and western regions from three perspectives: demographic, economic, and social. The results show that demographic factors are the direct cause of urbanrural differences in aging, economic factors are the root cause, and social factors such as education, medical care, and social security have different effects between urban and rural areas and regions. As a result, the government should improve fertility assistance to raise fertility rates, promote integrated urbanrural development, stimulate the creation of eldercare services in rural regions, and promote regional connectivity and collaboration.

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尚子娟,迟佰慧.我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析[J].重庆师范大学学报社会科学版,2023,(4):66-76

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  • 在线发布日期: 2023-09-22