数字经济对就业韧性的非线性影响——兼论产业集聚的非线性调节效应
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F274

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国家社会科学基金一般项目“数字普惠金融支持中小企业发展效率提升的机理分析与优化路径研究”(21BJY047)


The Nonlinear Impact of the Digital Economy on Employment Resilience—Along with the Nonlinear Moderating Effect of Industrial Agglomeration
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    摘要:

    本研究基于2013—2022年中国263个地级市的数据,探讨数字经济对就业数量韧性的影响及产业集聚的调节作用。研究发现:首先,数字经济与就业数量韧性之间存在显著的U型关系,即其早期阶段可能抑制就业,但随着发展,促进作用逐渐显现。其次,制造业集聚、生产性服务业集聚及协同集聚显著调节了这一关系,其中制造业集聚和协同集聚延缓了数字经济的积极影响,而生产性服务业集聚使U型关系趋于平缓,逐步转化为正向线性关系。最后,区域异质性与城市规模的检验显示,在东部地区,数字经济与就业韧性的U型关系更显著,中西部地区则不显著;各城市规模的影响呈多样性,Ⅰ型大城市为U型,Ⅱ型大城市为正向线性,小型城市为负向线性。研究深化了数字经济对劳动市场影响的理解,为政策制定者在数字经济发展与就业优化之间的平衡提供实证支持。

    Abstract:

    Based on data from 263 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2013 to 2022, this study examines the impact of the digital economy on the quantitative toughness of employment and the moderating role of industrial agglomeration. The study finds that: first, there is a significant U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and the quantitative toughness of employment, i.e., it may inhibit employment in its early stages, but the facilitating effect gradually emerges as it develops. Second, manufacturing agglomeration, productive services agglomeration and cooperative agglomeration significantly moderated this relationship, in which manufacturing and cooperative agglomeration delayed the positive impact of the digital economy, while productive services agglomeration flattened the U-shaped relationship and gradually transformed it into a positive linear relationship. Finally, the test of regional heterogeneity and city size shows that the U-shaped relationship between the digital economy and employment resilience is more significant in the eastern region, but not in the central and western regions; the impact of each city size is diversified, with a U-shape for Type I large cities, a positive linear relationship for Type II large cities, and a negative linear relationship for small cities. The study deepens the understanding of the impact of the digital economy on the labor market, and provides empirical support for policymakers to balance between digital economy development and employment optimization.

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王亚飞,刘峻楠.数字经济对就业韧性的非线性影响——兼论产业集聚的非线性调节效应[J].重庆师范大学学报社会科学版,2025,(1):93-106

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-26
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