经济政策不确定性对企业新质生产力的倒U型效应及其传导机制研究
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F062.1

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教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“基于宏观政策取向一致性的制造业新质生产力提升路径研究”(24YJC790245);广西学位与研究生教育改革专项课题“提升经济学学科研究生教育服务广西经济社会发展能力研究”(JGY2023224)


Research on the Inverted U-shaped Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firms’ New Quality Productivity and Its Transmission Mechanism
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    摘要:

    新质生产力是推动经济高质量发展的关键动能。本文采用2011—2022年中国A股上市公司数据,构建企业新质生产力测度指标,研究经济政策不确定性对企业新质生产力的影响效应及其传导路径。研究结果表明,经济政策不确定性对企业新质生产力起显著的倒U型作用,在进行多种稳健性检验后该结论依然稳健。机制检验表明,经济政策不确定性主要通过企业内部管理与生产效率以及外部供应链风险管控两个维度影响企业新质生产力。异质性检验发现,经济政策不确定性对大中型、运营效率高、外资及信息透明度高的企业新质生产力的影响更为显著。调节效应分析显示,帮扶型政策提供的资源和支持会强化经济政策不确定性对企业新质生产力的倒U型影响。研究结论可为政府制定稳定经济政策、企业优化创新策略提供理论依据和参考。

    Abstract:

    New quality productivity is the key driving force to promote high-quality economic development. Based on the data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2011 to 2022, this paper constructs the measurement index of enterprise new quality productivity, and studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on enterprise new quality productivity and its transmission path. The results show that economic policy uncertainty plays a significant inverted U-shaped effect on the new quality productivity of enterprises, and the conclusion is still stable after a variety of robustness tests. The mechanism test shows that the uncertainty of economic policy mainly affects the new productivity of enterprises through two dimensions: internal management and production efficiency and external supply chain risk control. The heterogeneity test finds that economic policy uncertainty has a more significant impact on the new productivity of large and medium-sized enterprises, with high operational efficiency, foreign investment and high information transparency. The moderating effect analysis shows that the resources and support provided by the supportive policy will strengthen the inverted U-shaped impact of economic policy uncertainty on the new quality productivity of enterprises. The conclusions of this study can provide a theoretical basis and reference for the government to formulate stable economic policies and enterprises to optimize innovation strategies.

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钟敏.经济政策不确定性对企业新质生产力的倒U型效应及其传导机制研究[J].重庆师范大学学报社会科学版,2025,(1):107-121

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-26
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