产业集聚对长三角地区城市经济韧性的影响研究——基于多样化与专业化视角
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F124;F299.2

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安徽省哲学社会科学规划青年项目“安徽省城市生态环境脆弱性跨域治理协同机制研究”(AHSKQ2023D019)


The Impact of Industrial Agglomeration on Urban Economic Resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Region: A Perspective of Diversification and Specialization
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    摘要:

    在全球经济不确定性显著增加、国内经济转型加速的背景下,城市经济韧性作为区域经济可持续发展的重要表征,其形成机制与提升路径成为关键议题。产业集聚作为城市经济结构的核心特征,其专业化与多样化两种模式对经济韧性的差异化影响尚未形成共识,尤其在长三角这一中国经济发展引擎地区,产业集聚模式与经济韧性的动态适配关系亟待实证检验。本文以2005—2023年长三角27个地级市为研究对象,聚焦产业集聚模式对城市经济韧性的异质性作用机制,核心问题包括:专业化与多样化集聚如何通过不同路径影响经济韧性?城市创新能力在二者关系中扮演何种角色?研究采用面板分位数模型刻画经济韧性的分布特征,结合调节效应模型检验创新能力的调节作用,并通过门槛效应模型识别非线性转折点,构建“集聚模式—创新能力—经济韧性”的分析框架。研究发现:多样化集聚对各分位点的经济韧性均具有显著正向作用,而专业化集聚的影响呈现“阈值特征”,仅对0.5分位点以上的经济韧性有促进作用;城市创新能力显著调节多样化集聚的韧性效应,但对专业化集聚无调节作用;专业化集聚与经济韧性之间存在基于创新能力的单一门槛效应,其影响随创新能力提升呈“U”型转变。该研究不仅揭示了产业集聚影响经济韧性的异质性机制,为破解“专业化与多样化”的理论争议提供了新证据,也为长三角地区通过优化产业集聚模式、强化创新能力梯度培育提升经济韧性,提供了兼具理论深度与实践价值的政策参考。

    Abstract:

    Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty and accelerated domestic economic transformation, urban economic resilience has become a crucial indicator for regional sustainable development. As a key characteristic of urban economic structures, industrial agglomeration affects economic resilience differently through specialization and diversification modes, yet their exact impacts remain debated—especially in China’s economically vital Yangtze River Delta region. This study examines 27 Yangtze River Delta cities from 2005 to 2023, focusing on how different agglomeration patterns influence economic resilience. Key questions include: (1) How do specialization and diversification affect economic resilience through different mechanisms? (2) What role does innovation capacity play in these relationships? Using panel quantile regression, moderation effect models, and threshold regression analysis, we develop an “agglomeration-innovation-resilience” framework to systematically investigate these dynamics. The study reveals how innovation capacity moderates these relationships and identifies critical threshold effects. Key findings reveal that diversified agglomeration consistently enhances resilience across all quantiles, whereas specialized agglomeration exhibits a threshold effect, benefiting only cities above the median resilience level. Urban innovation capacity positively moderates diversification’s resilience effect but shows no influence on specialization. Notably, specialization and resilience demonstrate a U-shaped relationship contingent on innovation, governed by a single threshold effect. These findings advance theoretical debates on “specialization versus diversification” by unraveling their heterogenous resilience mechanisms. Practically, they inform evidence-based policies for the Yangtze River Delta, advocating optimized agglomeration strategies and tiered innovation capacity-building to bolster economic resilience.

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王凯,左慧.产业集聚对长三角地区城市经济韧性的影响研究——基于多样化与专业化视角[J].重庆师范大学学报社会科学版,2025,(5):91-103

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-22
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