Whether the expansion of energy demand during China’s industrial green transition triggers an energy “rebound effect,” thereby creating a dynamic contradiction of “efficiency improvement—demand rebound,” has become a critical issue constraining the achievement of the “dual carbon” goals and regional coordinated development. Existing research lacks in-depth analysis of the underlying bidirectional coupling relationship. This study comprehensively employs PVAR model, spatial Durbin model, and system GMM method to empirically examine the rebound effect of industrial green transformation on energy consumption and differences in pollution spillover (externality) contributions. The research findings indicate: (1) The industrial green development index and energy consumption exhibit strong continuity and cumulativeness, with dynamic interaction between industrial green transformation and energy use. No overall “energy rebound effect” exists across the entire sample; however, the middle reaches of the Yellow River region show the highest comprehensive energy rebound coefficient, followed by the northern coastal areas. (2) Based on spatial regression models incorporating pollution spillover effects, industrial green development exhibits an “energy rebound effect” within the province but exerts pressure that reduces energy consumption in neighboring regions. Industrial green transformation demonstrates stronger radiating impacts on both the local and surrounding areas, facilitating carbon and wastewater reduction in the province. Increased energy consumption leads to higher total carbon emissions and solid waste output within the province. (3) Regression analysis using an efficiency-constrained model reveals a significant “transfer and diffusion effect” of industrial green transformation and energy consumption on energy conservation and emission reduction efficiency in neighboring regions, particularly evident among provinces and cities ranked between 30% and 70% in terms of energy efficiency. This study provides theoretical and empirical validation regarding the “efficiency trap” triggered by industrial transformation. At the conclusion, policy recommendations are proposed for deep integration between energy systems and industrial structures, offering valuable insights for regional green transition policies and achieving China’s “dual carbon” goals.